Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are both heading to Texas as their presidential campaigns enter the final stretch before polling day in what appears to be a very tight race that could go either way.
Harris, the current vice president and Democratic nominee, will hold a campaign rally in Houston on October 25 at which she will highlight the issue of abortion rights in light of the 2021 ban in Texas on terminations past six weeks of a pregnancy.
The singer Beyoncé is expected to appear at the Harris rally, according to The Washington Post, which cited anonymous people “familiar with the planning”. Country musician Willie Nelson is also anticipated to be there.
Trump, the former president and Republican nominee, will make a stop in Austin that same Friday for a press conference to discuss border security and immigration before heading to an appearance on Joe Rogan‘s podcast.
Unless the models are faulty, or there is a sudden shift in intentions, the polls suggest Texas will stick with Trump for the third presidential election in a row after he won the state in 2016 and 2020, albeit by a smaller margin the second time around.
The trend since 2000 shows a narrowing of the margin of Republican presidential victories in Texas, which may one day become another battleground state if Democrats continue to grow support there.
But according to the forecaster 538’s model, Trump wins Texas in 87 out of 100 simulations; Harris just 13. And the 538 polling average for Texas has Trump besting Harris by 6.7 points, according to the most recent data for October 24.
Left, Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to members of the media at The Warwick Hotel on October 24, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 24, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Both nominees will be in Texas on Friday, October 25.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Down ballot in Texas, things look a little more hopeful for Democrats. Republican Senator Ted Cruz holds a 3.4 point lead over Democratic challenger Colin Allred, a margin that has narrowed since the summer.
Some individual polls, such as recent surveys by Emerson and Morning Consult, put the race to a single point’s difference, within the margin of error. But the headline average suggests Allred still has a hill to climb, and time is running out.
The 2024 presidential election will likely be won not in Texas, but in the seven battleground states where the race is knife-edge close: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
With just days to go, and Trump closing the gap with Harris in national polling—538’s average of polls puts the Democrat’s lead at 1.8 points, down from 2.6 on October 1—there is a question about which states the nominees should prioritize at this late stage.
For Harris, is a visit to Texas now the right call? Or is she wasting precious time that could be spent in 2024’s battleground states instead? Newsweek asked some top Democratic strategists and consultants for their views. Here’s what they said.
Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell, and chief strategist of President Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign and Hillary Clinton’s 2008 primary campaign
I am a little surprised Harris is going to Texas as part of her end game, but then Trump keeps holding rallies in New York. Both have an interest in not just winning the presidency but in the House and the Senate, and both their visits only make sense in that context.
Leah D. Daughtry, Principal of On These Things, LLC, and former chief of staff of the Democratic Party, and CEO of the of the 2008 and 2016 Democratic National Conventions
This election will be won on the margins—and not just the presidential, but in races and referenda up and down the ballot. The Allred v. Cruz Senate race in Texas is a prime example.
Harris has been saying that she knows she’s got to earn every vote. She also says that she wants voters to know that she “sees” them and understands their concerns.
Showing up in Texas, bringing the excitement of her campaign to voters who get little attention from Democratic presidential candidates, is tangible evidence that she means what she says.
Maybe Harris won’t win Texas, but the energy and enthusiasm that her rally can generate in the state may help down-ballot candidates. And that would make it worth the day trip. Oh, and Beyonce’s endorsement in her hometown state is nothing to sneeze at.
Donna Brazile, veteran political strategist, campaign manager for Al Gore in 2000, and interim chairperson of the DNC in 2016
Vice President Harris should campaign not only in reliable red or blue states, but purple states as well. I am excited to see the vice president back in the Lonestar State of Texas.
While she may not get the lion’s share of the votes, Harris’s appearance will help down ballot races and send a message to voters across the state. It’s time for Democrats to get back to investing in all 50 states plus DC.
Jane Hope Hamilton, former Joe Biden statewide director for Texas
When Harris shows up, she shows up to win, and that’s exactly what she’s doing in Texas. The math is changing. With the Cruz-Allred Senate race locked in a stunning 1-point margin, Harris’s visit is strategic.
Last month’s unprecedented $24.5 million national investment in down-ballot races, combined with her visit to Texas, signals a clear shift: Democrats see the state’s 40 electoral votes as genuinely in play, particularly as independent voters are increasingly breaking Democratic.
