Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in the popular vote according to six opinion polls conducted either after or during Tuesday’s presidential debate between the two rivals in Philadelphia.
The Democratic candidate had a lead of between two and five percentage points according to the survey, although several were within the margin of error.
On Tuesday, Harris and Trump clashed in a series of heated exchanges which covered abortion, illegal immigration and the attendance at their respective rallies. A flash poll published by CNN immediately after the debate found that 63 percent of viewers thought Harris emerged as the victory, against 37 percent for Trump. Harris also saw her odds of victory in November improve markedly with leading bookmakers after the debate, many of which concluded she was now the favorite.
A Morning Consult survey of 3,317 likely voters conducted on September 11, the day after the debate, put Harris ahead with 50 percent against 45 percent for Trump. The poll had a margin of error of two percentage points.
Ipsos surveyed 1,405 registered voters for Reuters over September 11-12, which found Harris had a five-point lead with 47 percent of the vote against Trump’s 42 percent. The survey came with a three percent margin of error.
Between September 11 and 13 YouGov polled 1,755 U.S. adults for Yahoo News. Among the registered voters included in the sample Harris led Trump by 50 percent of the vote against 45 percent. The survey had a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
This survey was a noted improvement for Harris on a previous YouGov/Yahoo News poll, which took place after the Democratic National Convention from August 22 to 26. In the August survey Harris had a popular vote lead of just one point, with 47 percent against 46 percent for Trump.
Kamala Harris speaking during a campaign event at Wilkes University’s McHale Athletic Center in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, September 13, 2024 (left) and Donald Trump at a campaign rally at the Expo World Market Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, on September 13, 2024 (right). Harris is leading Trump in the popular vote according to six polls conducted during or after their debate on September 10.
KENA BETANCUR/AFP/PATRICK T. FALLON/GETTY
RMG Research polled 2,756 likely voters between September 9, the day before the debate, and September 12, on behalf of The Napolitan Institute. The poll gave Harris a four-point lead with 51 percent of the vote, against 47 percent for Trump.
A Leger poll of 1,174 likely voters, conducted between September 10 and 11 for The New York Post, put Harris on 47 percent versus 44 percent for Trump. The survey had a margin of error of up to 2.72 percent.
Finally Redfield & Wilton Strategies polled 1,952 likely voters on September 12. This survey found Harris had a two point lead with 44 percent of the vote against 42 percent for Trump, whilst eight percent said they were undecided.
It should be noted that Harris could win the popular vote but lose the contest overall thanks to the Electoral College system. This happened to Hillary Clinton, who was defeated in 2016 despite a popular vote win of just over two percentage points.
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Kamala Harris and Trump presidential campaigns for comment via email on Saturday outside of regular office hours.
An analysis of recent polls published by election website FiveThirtyEight on Saturday found Harris had a 2.7 percentage point lead over Trump, with 48.1 percent of the vote against 45.4 percent.
