Donald Trump has retaken the lead over Kamala Harris in the crunch 2024 battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to an average of recent polling calculated by the RealClearPolitics website.
The average of a dozen polls, conducted between September 11 and 29, gave Trump a 0.2 point lead with 48.1 percent of the vote against 47.9 percent for Harris. On September 18, the RealClearPolitics average of recent Pennsylvania polling had Harris in the lead by 0.6 point.
It comes as surveys continue to show a tight battle for the White House, with the vice president having a national lead of 2.8 points, according to an analysis of recent polling published by election website 538 on September 30. Due to the Electoral College system it’s possible for Trump to lose the popular vote, but win November’s election overall, as he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
The latest RealClearPolitics average of recent polls for Pennsylvania is the first to put Trump in the lead since September 16, when he was 0.2 points ahead of Harris. According to the website, Trump had a comfortable lead of around 4.5 points over Joe Biden before the president announced his withdrawal from the 2024 election in July. After Harris established herself as his replacement she quickly made ground, according to the website’s polling average, moving ahead for the first time on August 29.
Kamala Harris at a campaign event at the Expo at World Market Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, on September 29, 2024. Harris has fallen behind Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to one average of recent polling.
RONDA CHURCHILL/AFP/GETTY
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email on Tuesday outside of regular office hours.
RealClearPolitics’ most recent average incorporated polls from Trafalgar Group, FOX News, Atlas Intel, Bloomberg, Rasmussen Reports, Susquehanna, Muhlenberg College, The Hill/Emerson, Insider Advantage, Marist, The Washington Post and the University of Massachusetts Lowell.
Earlier this year, 538 stopped including polling from the conservative-linked Rasmussen Reports in its analysis, claiming it no longer met the required standard.
A recent survey by Republican-linked pollster Trafalgar Group, which was included in the RealClearPolitics average, put Trump ahead in Pennsylvania by just over 2 points. The poll of 1,090 likely voters, conducted between September 26 and 29, put Trump on 47.5 percent in the Keystone State against 45.3 percent for Harris. This survey had a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Speaking to Newsweek in response to the poll, Kush Desai, the Trump campaign’s spokesperson for Pennsylvania, argued that support for the Republican nominee has been underestimated in the state.
They said: “Pollsters, the media, and ‘intellectuals’ have repeatedly failed to grasp the depth and breadth of support for President Donald J. Trump from the American people.
“Americans have a clear choice this election: another four years of rising prices, open borders, and incompetence under Kamala Harris or a return to the peace, prosperity, and stability of the Trump administration. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is going to prove itself, once again, to be TRUMP COUNTRY in November.”
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Pennsylvania with 50 percent of the vote against 48.4 percent for the then Republican incumbent.
However, in more concerning news for Trump, a recent Victory Insights poll put him ahead of Harris by just 2 points in Florida, a former swing state that has become a Republican stronghold over the past few years. The survey put Trump on 46.9 percent of the vote in the state against 44.9 percent for Harris, with 8.2 percent of those polled saying they were undecided.
Authorities in Erie, Pennsylvania, where Trump held a rally on Sunday, confirmed they are still seeking $40,330 from his presidential campaign to pay for assistance they provided for campaign visits the Republican made in 2018 and 2023.
