Even as the NFL season ramps up, it is still important to stay dialed into the MLB as baseball’s regular season comes to a close.
We were able to stay hot on these MLB player prop picks yesterday (thank you, Brent Rooker), so let’s hope to get another one of these home run predictions correct today.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+230) FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
The +230 odds are admittedly pretty low, and they’re lower than what we typically like to play for these home run predictions. For someone like Ohtani, though, they are short for good reason.
He has hit the second-most home runs in MLB (47), with the second-best ISO, second-best barrel rate, second-best HardHit rate and third-fastest average exit velocity. So, yes, he is pretty good.
He has also been good recently, so there is no current slump to worry about. In the last month, Ohtani has hit 10 home runs with a 15% barrel rate and 65% HardHit rate.
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He will be facing a right-handed pitcher tonight, and, as a lefty, Ohtani has much better stats against righties. His ISO rate is .381 against RHP, up from .216 against LHP. That .381 ISO rate, by the way, would be the best in the league, ahead of Aaron Judge, if extrapolated out to a full season.
As for the pitching matchup itself, Darren McCaughan is on the mound for the Marlins. He does not have horrible stats in terms of allowing home runs, but he is not a pitcher to be afraid of, either.
Despite allowing one home run in the only three starts he has made in the past two months, he is still allowing a barrel rate of 8.2% (22nd-worst), HardHit rate of 40.8% (16th-worst), average exit velocity of 91.9 mph (the worst) and a launch angle of 21.9 degrees (second-worst).
So, to summarize, he has been allowing batters to hit the ball very hard and put the ball in the air, which is a bad combination, especially against an elite hitter such as Ohtani.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+230): 1 Unit
Aaron Judge Home Run (+300) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
With Ohtani as the first play of the day, it only feels right to go with the actual best hitter on the planet and take Aaron Judge to go yard as well.
It is rare to see Judge in the 300’s, even at exactly +300, but that is something we will gladly take advantage of. The reason he has such high odds tonight is that the pitcher he is going up against admittedly does not allow a lot of home runs.
Bryan Woo is pitching for the Mariners, and Woo is a solid pitcher. His HR/9 on the season is a very low 0.94, however, in the last two months, he has been a little more hittable.
That HR/9 is up to 1.17 in his last 10 starts, which is a much more manageable number, and it’s all the way up to 2.01 HR/9 in his last five starts. Woo’s stats recently are much worse across the board, which makes sense for a pitcher whose HR/9 has increased so dramatically.
His barrel rate (11.2%), HardHit rate (40.4%), average exit velocity (91.7 mph) and launch angle (20 degrees) in this last five starts show a pitcher that is struggling, and if you extrapolate those stats out to the entire season, he would be among the worst pitchers in the league.
So, we are getting a discount because of the pitching matchup, but his recent performances suggest that Woo is actually worth targeting with home run props.
Judge goes yard today.
Aaron Judge Home Run (+300): 1 Unit
Bryce Harper Home Run (+425) Bet365
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
Harper was on our list yesterday, and despite not coming through for us, he hit the ball incredibly hard, and he has another plus matchup tonight. So, we are comfortable going with him for the second night in a row.
Harper had three HardHits yesterday, including one that traveled 364 feet but was in the wrong part of the stadium and ended up being a flyout. Harper’s other two hits on Monday both left the bat at 100-plus mph.
So, part of the logic for taking him yesterday was that he was hot at the plate heading into the game, and, even though he did not go yard, nothing about his performance yesterday suggests that he is cooling down.
As for the pitching matchup, Frankie Montas is pitching for the Brewers, and this should be a batter-pitcher matchup that favors the batter.
For starters, Montas really struggles against left-handed hitters. He has seen slightly more at-bats against lefties (312) than righties (285), but he has allowed 13 of his 18 total home runs to LHH.
His HR/9 against lefties specifically is 1.75, up from 0.63 against RHH. Harper will right the wrongs from yesterday and come through for us tonight.
Bryce Harper Home Run (+425): 0.75 Units
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