Every Tuesday this NFL season, Newsweek sports betting writers Tyler Everett and Matt Modi will offer their early ATS bets on every game on the schedule.
With four teams — the Lions, Titans, Eagles and Chargers — on the bye, Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season features just 14 games.
The highlights of the Week 5 slate include Bucs-Falcons on Thursday Night Football, Jets-Vikings from London at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dallas vs. Pittsburgh on SNF and Saints vs. Chiefs on MNF.
Week 4 was a struggle, with Modi going 7-9 on his early ATS picks and Everett hitting a new low at 5-11.
Season records on early NFL ATS picks:
- Modi: 30-31-3
- Everett: 23-38-3
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Buccaneers at Falcons (-1.5) — Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Bucs +1.5
The Falcons offense is yet to live up to the offseason hype, while the Bucs are 3-1, with two wins as the underdogs. Give me Tampa Bay to grind out a close win on the road.
Modi: Bucs +1.5
Last Sunday against New Orleans, the Falcons almost managed to lose a game in which their defense and special teams both scored touchdowns, which is obviously impossible to count on week-over-week. They are a team I am looking to fade this week.
$200 BONUS BETS
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
$1,000 FIRST BET RESET (MUST USE CODE NEWSWEEK)
ESPN BET
UP TO $1,000 BONUS BETS
FANATICS SPORTSBOOK
$1,500 FIRST-BET OFFER
BETMGM
$200 BONUS OR $1,000 FIRST-BET SAFETY NET
BET365
$1,000 FIRST BET
CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
$200 BONUS BETS
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
Jets at* Vikings (-2.5) — Sunday, 9:30 a.m.
*Jets-Viking takes place in London, with the Vikings as the home team at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Everett: Vikings -2.5
The Jets defense played well enough for a win last weekend, but the N.Y. OL was terrible in a ugly home loss to the Broncos. The Jets could keep this one close for a while, but the red-hot Vikings should be able to cover the tight spread.
Modi: Jets +2.5
This is one of those plug-your-nose-and-bet type of plays, but the Jets are coming off a grotesque loss to the Broncos where they only scored nine points, while the Vikings are coming off an impressive victory over the Packers. Perfect buy-low, sell-high type of play here.
Browns at Commanders (-3.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Commanders -3.5
Taking Deshaun Watson and the Browns on the road is an awful idea right now, and the Commanders offense is on fire. Laying the points with Washington in this game is an easy decision.
Modi: Browns +3.5
I get that the Commanders and Jayden Daniels are the darlings of the NFL to start the season, but rookie QBs are known to be inconsistent, and this will be, by far, the best defense the Commanders will have seen so far.
Panthers at Bears (-3.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bears -3.5
Chicago’s defense is going to challenge Andy Dalton and the Panthers in a way that neither the Raiders nor the Bengals were able to the last two weeks. Injuries are taking a massive toll on the Carolina D, which is now without both DL Derrick Brown and LB Shaq Thompson for the season. Chicago will take this one in Caleb Williams’ best game as a pro.
Modi: Panthers +3.5
There is something about these underdogs to start the week, and I like another dog in the Panthers against the Bears. I got burned by fading the Bears last week, but it is still hard to trust their offense, and I am not ready to count on them to play well two weeks in a row.
Ravens (-3) at Bengals — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Ravens -3
Joe Burrow has come alive the last two weeks, but Cincinnati’s struggles stopping the run this year do not bode well for a matchup against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Baltimore is moving in the right direction after an 0-2 start, and the Ravens will keep it rolling in Week 5.
Modi: Bengals +3
Yet another dog that we like taking the points with here. The Ravens just shellacked the Bills on Sunday Night Football, so they are riding high, but the Bengals are in desperation mode themselves after starting 0-3 (now 1-3), and I like for them to win this one outright.
Colts at Jaguars (-3) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Jaguars -3
Jacksonville is better than its 0-4 record would indicate, and it should be able to finally get its first win in Week 5, whether the Colts start a banged-up Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco.
Modi: Jaguars -3
The Jags are the only winless team in the NFL and they are favored? This line screams that Vegas is dying for the public to take the Colts, so I’ll zag.
Bills (-1) at Texans — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bills -1
Houston is 3-1 but looks awfully beatable right now. The Bills were trampled by Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Week 4, but Josh Allen and Co. should bounce back on the road against a Texans team that hasn’t had much success running the ball since Week 1.
Modi: Bills -1
Finally, a favorite. This spread actually opened up with the Texans as favorites, but has quickly moved in favor of the Bills. The Texans are a 3-1 team that I am looking to fade, as they have not looked impressive despite their three wins. The Bills bounce back.
Dolphins at Patriots (-1) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Patriots -1
Somebody has to score enough to win this game, right? The Dolphins have scored a total of 25 points the last three weeks as the offense has floundered without Tua Tagovailoa. On the road against a solid New England D, it’s hard to trust the Dolphins offense to get on track this Sunday.
Modi: Dolphins +1
This is our classic “I’d rather watch paint dry” game of the week. Give me the Dolphins in a game that could end 3-3.
Cardinals at 49ers (-7.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Cardinals +7.5
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have struggled offensively after a hot start in Weeks 1 and 2. The Niners are coming off one of the most one-sided victories of Week 4, a 30-13 home win over New England.
The Cardinals lost both matchups against San Francisco last year by more than two TDs, but I like them to keep this one close in a bounce-back performance.
Modi: 49ers -7.5
The Cardinals offense has been incredibly underwhelming to start the season, while the 49ers look to get back on track while getting some key players back healthy. They roll in this one.
Raiders at Broncos (-2.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Broncos -2.5
The Denver defense has been one of the biggest (pleasant) surprises of the 2024 season so far. It’s officially time to start taking this unit seriously after it held the Bucs and Jets to just 16 points combined. I’ll take the Broncos to win another close, low-scoring game and move to 3-2 on Sunday.
Modi: Raiders +2.5
The Broncos have won two straight games now? Bo Nix won despite passing for 60 yards last week? Fade.
Packers (-3.5) at Rams — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Rams +3.5
I like Jordan Love to lead Green Bay to its first win of the season with him under center, but Matthew Stafford and the Rams are dangerous enough at home that I’ll take them to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Modi: Packers -3.5
Jordan Love looked like a player who was rusty and coming off a knee injury to start the game last week, but he got in a groove as the game went on, and the Rams defense has not been able to stop anybody.
Giants at Seahawks (-6) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Giants +6
New York has played in three straight low-scoring contests after a blowout loss against Minnesota in the season opener. The Giants (2-2 ATS) should be able to lean on their underrated defense and Malik Nabers to keep this game competitive and cover as 6-point road dogs against a Seahawks squad coming off a rough MNF loss to the Lions.
Modi: Giants +6
After a gross Week 1 performance, the Giants have been feisty. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are coming off a brutal loss on Monday Night Football to the Lions, so they come out sluggish in this one.
Cowboys at Steelers (-2.5) — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Everett: Steelers -2.5
Traveling to Pittsburgh for a night game would be a tough test for Dallas even if it were healthy. With DeMarcus Lawrence unavailable and Micah Parsons questionable, it’s hard to see the Cowboys pulling off the upset.
Modi: Steelers -2.5
This line has been moving more and more in the favor of the Steelers, and I agree with that line movement. The Cowboys defense was already struggling, and it is now missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence.
Saints at Chiefs (-5) — Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Chiefs -5
Kansas City continues to win ugly as injuries to key offensive players mount, but this team is now 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) after last Sunday’s win over the Chargers. I’ll go with the Chiefs to once again do just enough to not only win, but cover.
Modi: Saints +5
The Chiefs are now 4-0, but lost another key weapon in Rashee Rice for this game. This screams Chiefs win on a last second field goal.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
