Another wacky week of NFL football in Week 4 reminded us that it is basically a guarantee that there will be multiple upsets, it is just on us to predict them.
Last week was not as crazy as the first three weeks were, but there were still plenty of underdogs that won. The biggest upset of the week was the Broncos taking down Aaron Rodgers and the Jets as 8-point road dogs.
Fortunately, we did get one right last week, thanks to the Buccaneers taking down the Eagles in a blowout, but we are hoping to have a better Week 5.
So, please check out our favorite NFL Week 5 upset predictions below.
Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (+120) Bet365
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ET
We just talked about the Broncos beating the Jets last week, but we are fading them this Sunday against the Raiders.
To get the downside of this pick out of the way first, the Broncos defense is legit. This is not a play because the Broncos defense is due for regression or anything like that. There is enough data to support them being a top-level D.
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Unfortunately, there are two units in football, and the Broncos offense is a complete abomination. They beat Aaron Rodgers and the Jets last week, and that was a game in which Bo Nix threw for 60 yards. That is not a typo, either.
One could make the argument that the passing yardage was so low due to the hurricane-type conditions in New York, but the passing offense for the Broncos has been a mess all season.
Nix has thrown for one touchdown all year, and is averaging 165 passing yards per game. He has also thrown four interceptions on the year. After not throwing one in two straight weeks, he is due for some negative regression in that department in Week 5.
Overall, the Broncos have the 28th-ranked offense according to DVOA, with the 26th-ranked passing offense and 28th-ranked rushing offense.
The Raiders are admittedly dealing with somewhat of a circus on their end with the trade situation surrounding WR Davante Adams, but they have a baseline of competence on offense with QB Gardner Minshew.
The Raiders are also expected to get All-Pro DE Maxx Crosby back, and he makes a night-and-day difference for their pass rush when he is in the lineup.
This is a plug-your-nose-and-bet type of situation, but the Raiders moneyline is the way to go here.
Raiders Moneyline (+120): 0.50 Units
Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline (+125) BetMGM
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
This is another underdog prediction that feels a little gross after the Ravens demolished the Bills last week, but the Bengals are a good home ‘dog to ride this week.
The biggest concern, of course, is the Bengals inability to stop the run, which has already been a problem for this team, and it is a huge concern going up against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
The last two games the Ravens have played in have been blowouts at halftime, so they have been able to pound the rock to salt away a lead.
Two weeks ago, they were up 21-6 against the Cowboys at halftime and 28-6 less than four minutes into the third quarter. Last week, against the Bills, Baltimore was up 21-3 at halftime, and its literal first play from scrimmage was an 87-yard touchdown run from Derrick Henry.
If the Bengals can get out to a quick lead, they can force the Ravens to be more pass-heavy, where the Bengals are not a weak defensively.
This year, the Bengals have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game in the league, but the seventh-fewest passing yards per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense is rounding into form, and they should be able to move the ball up and down the field through the passing game, which hopefully creates a game script environment where the Ravens are not able to ride the ground game all afternoon.
The Bengals currently have the fourth-best offense in the NFL, according to DVOA, and they should be able to throw on this Ravens defense.
On the year, the Ravens are allowing the third-most passing yards per game, with the opposing team averaging 282 passing yards against them.
Of course, that number was over 300 yards per game heading into Week 4, but they shut down Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack last week, which makes their numbers look more respectable on the season.
In Week 2, Gardner Minshew put up 276 passing yards against the Ravens, and in Week 3, Dak Prescott threw for 379 yards.
Joe Burrow should be able to have a good game, which hopefully leads to an upset of their division rival on Sunday.
Bengals Moneyline (+125): 0.50 Units
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