Every Tuesday this NFL season, Newsweek sports betting writers Tyler Everett and Matt Modi are offering their early ATS bets on every game on the schedule.
By the end of Week 9, most NFL teams will be past the halfway point of the 2024 campaign.
At this point, several teams are clear contenders to not only make the playoffs but win games in January. On the other end of the spectrum, fans of squads like Tennessee and Carolina are already trying to figure out who their teams should draft next April.
On the surface, Week 8 struck us as a slate full of coin flips. Sure enough, both Everett (8-8) and Modi (7-9) might as well have been calling heads or tails.
Season records on early NFL ATS picks:
- Everett: 55-63-5
- Modi: 46-57-5*
*Modi sat out Week 7, hence the discrepancy in how many games these two have picked this year.
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Texans at Jets (-1.5) — Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Texans +1.5
Injuries are mounting for the Texans, who are now without WR Stefon Diggs for the rest of the year. Still, we’ll take C.J. Stroud and Co. to pull out a close one over a Jets team that makes way too many mistakes to beat good opponents.
Modi: Texans +1.5
The Texans are out of receivers, but the Jets are a circus act. Next.
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Cowboys at Falcons (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Falcons -2.5
Atlanta is on a roll, with wins in four of its last five games. Even if the Cowboys play better than they have recently on offense, Kirk Cousins and Co. should be able to win a home shootout by at least a field goal.
Modi: Falcons -2.5
Speaking of clown shows, the Cowboys season appears as though it is going into free-fall. Late comebacks have made the final scores in lifeless performances against the Ravens earlier in the season and the 49ers last week look better than the reality.
Dolphins at Bills (-6) — Sunday 1 p.m.
Everett: Bills -6
The Bills have been dominant the last two weeks, and I like the red-hot Buffalo offense to win by at least a touchdown at home in Week 9.
Modi: Bills -6
Lost in the hoopla around Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa going down against the Bills in their first matchup of the year is the fact that Buffalo utterly dominated that game even before Tua got hurt.
Saints (-7) at Panthers — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Panthers +7
We’re rolling the dice on the Panthers at home after an up-and-down return to the field by Bryce Young in Week 8. In a matchup of two bad offenses, we’ll take the Panthers to at least keep this game competitive against a team that embarrassed them back in Week 1.
Modi: Saints -7
Gross. Take the Saints with Derek Carr back and move on.
Raiders at Bengals (-7.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bengals -7.5
The Bengals, like the Jets, continue to get oddsmakers’ respect despite their sub-.500 record. We’ll reluctantly take Cincinnati here, as the Raiders are traveling across the country after a hard-fought loss to the hated Chiefs last Sunday.
Modi: Bengals -7.5
The Bengals just suffered a 20-point loss, but that game was close going into the fourth quarter until the Bengals had three straight offensive drives go: stopped on 4th and 1, turnover, turnover. They take it to this bad Raiders team.
Chargers (-2) at Browns — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Browns +2
Cleveland is a dangerous team when it gets competent quarterback play, and we expect the Browns to put up a good fight every week now that Jameis Winston is at the helm. We’ll go with Cleveland to win its second consecutive game in a contest that will come down to the wire.
Modi: Browns +2
Now that the Browns have a competent QB, they are going to start winning some games.
Patriots at Titans (-3.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Patriots +3.5
Drake Maye’s likely absence (concussion) explains why Tennessee is favored by more than a field goal, but we like New England to keep it tight, regardless of whether it’s Mason Rudolph or Will Levis under center for the Titans.
Modi: Patriots +3.5
One of the worst games of the season. Next.
Commanders (-3.5) at Giants — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Commanders -3.5
The potential for a hangover for Washington is real after last Sunday’s dramatic win over the Bears, but the Commanders have a suddenly solid defense after struggling to get stops early in the year. We’ll take Jayden Daniels’s team to grind out a win over their division rivals.
Modi: Giants +3.5
Everything is jolly in Commanders-land after that absurd walk-off Hail Mary victory last week against the Bears. But the Giants, despite losing last week, showed some fight against the Steelers, so they keep this one close.
Broncos at Ravens (-9) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Broncos +9
The Ravens won’t lose two in a row as heavy favorites, but the Baltimore defense is too inconsistent for us to lay this many points against a solid Broncos team that continues to get no respect despite its 5-3 record.
Modi: Broncos +9
I’m not sure if people have caught on, but this Broncos team is good. Their defense has been good all year, but QB Bo Nix has gotten better since a rough start. This spread is just too high in the Ravens favor.
Bears at Cardinals (-1) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Bears +1
Predicting how Chicago will respond to a heartbreaking loss like last week’s against Washington is almost impossible. I don’t feel great about either side of this spread, but I’ll take the Chicago defense to lead the Bears to a tough win over Kyler Murray and the scrappy Cards.
Modi: Cardinals -1
These are two teams that are hard to get a read on week over week, but the Bears inability to stop the run is going to be a tough test against Kyler Murray, James Conner and this Cardinals offense that has now won two straight.
Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Eagles -7.5
Is Philadelphia due for a letdown after back-to-back statement wins over the Giants and the Bengals? We don’t think so. The offense and defense are both playing as well as they have since this team’s strong start in 2023, and we like the Eagles to keep on rolling against the 2-6 Jags.
Modi: Eagles -7.5
With two straight dominant performances in a row, the Eagles might be turning a corner after a slow start to the season. The Jaguars, meanwhile, might be missing their top three receivers and are already enduring a lost season.
Lions (-3.5) at Packers — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Lions -3.5
Detroit won’t walk all over Green Bay at Lambeau the way it did Dallas and Tennessee the last two weeks. Still, betting against the versatile Lions is not something we’re interested in, even if Packers QB Jordan Love ends up being available for this one after an injury last Sunday.
Modi: Lions -3.5
It is admittedly hard to bet this game without knowing the status of Jordan Love, but the Lions look as though they are on a mission, so I’ll continue to ride the heater.
Rams (-1.5) at Seahawks — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Rams -1.5
The Rams are fresh off a big win over the Vikings, and they’re on 10 days’ rest after playing on TNF in Week 8. Give me the rejuvenated L.A. offense to get the job done in Seattle as road favorites.
Modi: Seahawks +1.5
I am betting against the narrative with this one, as these teams are in completely opposite situations. The Rams are riding high after getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back, while the Seahawks are reeling after getting trounced by the Bills. The NFL is a week-to-week league, so I like a sell-high/buy-low spot here, selling the Rams and buying the Seahawks.
Colts at Vikings (-5) — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Everett: Vikings -5
Minnesota is coming off back-to-back losses after a 5-0 start, but the Vikings will get right at home in primetime against Joe Flacco and the struggling Colts defense.
Modi: Colts +5
This week featured shocking news out of Indianapolis, with the Colts benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, which now gives the Colts a real passing attack for opponents to worry about, as Richardson had really struggled this year.
Buccaneers at Chiefs — Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Buccaneers +8.5
These teams are moving in opposite directions. Tampa has lost three of its last four while enduring a ton of issues on defense, and it could be without both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just made two key acquisitions, and they might have the best defense in the league to go with their high-powered offense.
Modi: Chiefs -8.5
This feels like a high number for a Chiefs squad that does not blow teams out anymore, but their defense has been phenomenal and should be able to shut down a Bucs offense missing its top two receivers.
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