It’s hard to identify any locks amid a season that has featured one massive upset after another, from New England beating Cincinnati back in Week 1 through a Week 4 slate that saw the Broncos knock off the Jets in the Meadowlands as 8.5-point underdogs.
Given all the upsets we saw in the month of September, is it smart to trust heavy favorites to take care of business now that we’ve reached October?
Or is there more value available elsewhere?
Below are our three favorite early bets to make for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season.
Commanders -3.5 (EVEN) ESPN BET
Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET
The 3-1 Commanders’ recent play makes them worth a look in any game where they’re a 3-to-3.5-point favorite at home. Their opponent on Sunday, the 1-3 Browns, provides all the more reason to like red-hot Washington to cover as the home favorite.
Cleveland has just one win this year despite facing the Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants and Raiders. Unless Deshaun Watson suddenly starts looking like the player he was way back in 2020, the Browns are going to be out of the playoff picture before the calendar turns to November.
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Watson has not played well in any of his four starts so far this year. His yards per attempt on the year (4.9) is third-worst in the league, ahead of only Denver rookie Bo Nix and embattled 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young.
Washington’s Jayden Daniels, on the other hand, looks poised beyond his years (in addition to being a unique talent as a deep-ball thrower and dangerous runner). He’s coming off two of the best performances you’ll see from a rookie quarterback:
- 21-of-23 for 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 interceptions vs. Cincinnati (Week 3)
- 26-of-30 for 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception vs. Arizona (Week 4)
At home, we’d like Daniels and the Commanders against quarterbacks much better than Watson, making them a safe bet to win and cover against Cleveland this weekend.
Commanders -3.5 (EVEN): 1 Unit
Patriots -1 (-110) bet365
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET
We’re going outside the box on this one, but hear us out. Actually, if you watched Miami against Buffalo in Week 2, Seattle in Week 3 or Tennessee in Week 4, this one might make plenty of sense.
Without Tua Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins have somehow looked even worse offensively than you might guess based on the 25 points they have scored, combined, the last three weeks.
After Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle both struggled against the Bills and Seahawks, former Ravens backup Tyler Huntley took over against the Titans in Week 4. One week after they moved the chains 13 times in 12 possessions in Seattle, the Fins hit a new low offensively in Week 4, with 13 first downs in 13 possessions in an embarrassing home loss to Mason Rudolph and Tennessee.
New England has plenty of offensive issues of its own right now, but the Patriots defense is good enough to shut down Huntley, who is expected to start on Sunday.
It says a lot about the Week 5 slate that backing the Patriots feels like one of the best early plays, but it’s impossible to unsee how uphill everything looked for the Dolphins offense on Monday night. And keep in mind that those struggles came against a team with some similarities to their next opponent — like the Titans, the Pats are solid defensively, but have struggled to move the ball the last couple weeks.
Patriots -1 (-110): 1 Unit
Cowboys vs. Steelers u43 (-112) DraftKings
Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 p.m. ET
While the Cowboys will not be nearly as imposing as usual on defense if both DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons miss this game, this still has the feel of a low-scoring matchup in the Steel City.
Pittsburgh’s defense wasn’t nearly as dominant in Week 4 as it was in Weeks 1-3. But at home against a Dallas offense that has struggled to run the ball and lacks any complementary pass-catchers alongside CeeDee Lamb, expect T.J. Watt and the Steelers to make points hard to come by for Dallas.
Justin Fields is coming off his best game as a Steeler in his team’s 27-24 loss to Indy last week. But even with Lawrence and Parsons potentially out of the picture, the best way to attack the Dallas D is by running the football, and the Steelers ground game is yet to get going — though not for a lack of effort.
Through four games, no one has more rushing attempts than Pittsburgh’s 138 (that number is tied with Baltimore and New Orleans). Despite their commitment to the ground game, the Steelers (3.7 yards per carry) are one of just eight teams in the league that is averaging less than 4 ypc.
One other reason to like the under in this game is the fact that in three of the Steelers’ first four contests this year, the total did not even crack 30 points, much less 40.
Steelers 2024 Game by Game Totals
- Week 1: 28 (PIT 18, ATL 10)
- Week 2: 19 (PIT 13, DEN 6)
- Week 3: 30 (PIT 20, LAC 10)
- Week 4: 51 (IND 27, PIT 24)
Cowboys-Steelers u43 (-112): 1 Unit
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