Tropical Storm Leslie’s Path Revealed in Spaghetti Models

Tropical Storm Leslie is expected to follow closely on the heels of Hurricane Kurt, according to the most recent forecast for the storm.

Leslie strengthened into a tropical storm late Wednesday night, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. Experts had been monitoring the storm, previously named Tropical Depression Thirteen, for several days before it became a named storm. As of Thursday afternoon, Leslie had maximum sustained wind speeds of 45 mph. The NHC anticipates that Leslie will strengthen further into a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Leslie is following Hurricane Kirk, a Category 3 hurricane with wind speeds of 125 mph, closely. Kirk is currently traveling northwestward but is expected to make a northward turn before spinning northeast. Spaghetti models, or computer models illustrating potential storm paths, show Leslie following a similar track.

Some spaghetti models predict that Leslie will continue westward. Another model anticipates that Leslie will aim southwest, toward South America.

However, National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist James Tomasini told Newsweek that the spaghetti models are a guideline, and the official NHC forecast for the storm shows Leslie keeping far off the coast of the U.S.

Despite staying well offshore of the U.S., Leslie will likely bring some indirect impacts to the East Coast in the form of “long-period swells,” Tomasini said. Leslie is expected to worsen rip currents along the East Coast, as is Kirk.

Rip currents can be caused by hurricanes or tropical storms that cause disturbances in the ocean, and they can impact a beach even if a tropical storm is hundreds of miles away, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned. Rip currents from Kirk will create dangerous swimming conditions, even as the larger waves attract people to the beach.

“While the surf may look more inviting because of the waves, very dangerous rip current threats often increase when the swells from distant hurricanes begin to impact the coastline,” National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Coordination Meteorologist Will Ulrich previously told Newsweek, adding it will be very dangerous for east-central Florida, as well as up the Eastern Seaboard.

An NHC spokesperson told Newsweek that the rip currents could become life-threatening. In east-central Florida, rip currents are the number one weather-related killer.

Weather warnings related to rip currents will likely be issued this weekend, Ulrich said.

Meanwhile, meteorologists are monitoring a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could become a tropical storm if conditions are favorable. Currently, the disturbance has a 30 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm in the next seven days. If it forms, that storm could impact Gulf Coast states, including Florida, but the timing and forecast remain unclear.