Historian Allan Lichtman has issued an assessment on the state of play in the Electoral College, suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris could win 283 votes, with the edge in four vital swing states.
In a livestream posted on his YouTube channel on Thursday, Lichtman said Harris was ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia.
He previously told Newsweek that women—who broadly favor Harris in most swing states—are “far outpacing men in early voting in swing states,” which gives the Democratic nominee an edge in these states.
Drawing on gender divides in early voting statistics, Lichtman said Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia leaned blue.
On the other hand, Arizona and Nevada leaned red, he said. The historian rated Pennsylvania as a toss-up.
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman and the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email outside normal working hours.
Although Lichtman stressed he was not officially forecasting the scores, and a lot of “guesswork” went into the assessment, the American University professor has issued a formal prediction for who will win the election, based on his system, “The Keys to the White House.”
This system hinges on 13 keys, all true/false statements, that evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics. Lichtman boasts an impressive track record of calling the victor using this model, though his methods are not without their critics.
Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign rally on the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., on October 29. Historian Allan Lichtman has assessed that Harris has the edge in four swing states, based on early voting data.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, it is expected to win. In September, Lichtman officially forecast that Harris would win the election, based on the keys.
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