How Israel Could Strike Back at Iran

Still reeling from the most intensive Iranian missile strikes to date amid ongoing battles in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, Israel has already vowed to hit back at the Islamic Republic in a powerful way.

And with Tehran threatening to respond to such moves with even greater force, the scope and scale of the looming Israeli operation could determine whether or not the Middle East ultimately slides into an all-out war after a year of tit-for-tat escalations.

Sima Shine, a former head of Mossad’s Research and Evaluation Division, told Newsweek that she believed it was not in the interests of Israel, Iran, or the United States to enter into such a total confrontation.

Yet, she warned, “It will be difficult not to deteriorate to a full-scale war because, at the end of the day, Israel will probably retaliate in a way that needs to deter Iran from continuing.”

Such a strike, she said, would likely be pursued “in a wider way” than the relatively quiet Israeli strike near a nuclear site following a previous Iranian missile and drone barrage fired against Israel in April. That Iranian strike was conducted in response to the killing of Iranian military personnel at a diplomatic compound in Syria.

The latest Iranian salvo was fired Tuesday in response to the killing of Hamas‘ political chief in Tehran in July, along with the slaying of Hezbollah’s leader and a senior Iranian military official in Lebanon last week, as well as other actions claimed by or tied to Israel. While the Islamic Republic again claimed self-defense, Israel has already begun drawing up strike plans—including several types of potential targets.

Prime Targets

Possible targets known to Shine include oil facilities, military infrastructure and nuclear sites. She also said it was possible that Israel could go after senior military officials, though she doubted that Iran’s political echelon would be on the hit list.

“The question will be whether to go wider or no,” Shine, who now serves as director of the Shiite Axis research program at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said. “And from what I understand, there is an ongoing people’s consultations of the cabinet; they, together with the Americans that are in a very delicate time now, a month before elections.”

Israeli officials have previously called for a joint strike with the United States against Iran, particularly targeting nuclear sites that Israel has long warned served as the basis of a burgeoning nuclear weapons program. Iranian officials have repeatedly denied seeking weapons of mass destruction, though officials and experts have suggested this could change if the Islamic Republic faced an existential threat.

Shine argued that the White House “might try to persuade Israel to go for a smaller plan than a bigger one.” However, she did not preclude direct U.S. involvement in any upcoming operation, given that Iranian officials have already tied Israel’s actions to the U.S., whose bases in the region remain a target for Tehran and its Axis of Resistance allies.

Asked on Wednesday if he backed an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, U.S. President Joe Biden responded, “The answer is no.”

Still, the Pentagon has already moved thousands of additional U.S. troops, fighter jet squadrons and a carrier strike group to the region amid the worsening tensions. As was the case in April, the U.S. Air Force also played a role in intercepting Iranian missiles on Tuesday. However, more projectiles appeared to make it through the combined defenses, damaging air bases among other sites in Israel.

Iranian officials have warned against any follow-up strikes. Tehran’s ambassador to the United Nations vowed a “swift, decisive and stronger” response should Israel continue to target Iran’s interests in the region in a letter to U.N. leadership that was obtained by Newsweek.

The Iranian Mission to the United Nations also warned of a “crushing response” to any additional Israeli attacks in a statement sent to Newsweek. In a follow-up statement shared with Newsweek in the wake of the strikes, the Iranian Mission said “a serious warning” was also sent to the U.S.

Nevertheless, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Tuesday that they “made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.” Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi then warned Wednesday that “we have the capabilities to reach and strike any point in the Middle East, and those of our enemies who have not yet understood this will soon understand.”

Casey Babb, who previously advised Israeli defense ministers and now serves in fellowships at the Macdonald Laurier Institute, the Institute for National Security Studies and the Royal United Services Institute in London, asserted that “the ball is in Israel’s court.”

“They’ve proven they aren’t afraid of carrying out bold and very daring operations—not just in Lebanon and Gaza, but in Syria, Yemen, and in the heart of Iran, among other places,” Babb told Newsweek. “That said, they’ve got a lot of options that appear to be on the table.”

A Vast Arsenal

Among these targets, Babb viewed Iran’s nuclear program as a particularly tantalizing target for Israeli forces. While still officially adhering to its long-held doctrine of not seeking a nuclear bomb, Iran has ramped up uranium enrichment and other measures in response to the U.S. decision to abandon a nuclear agreement in 2019 and double down on sanctions against Tehran.

Israel has a lengthy history of waging covert warfare against Iran’s nuclear program, with numerous acts of sabotage against sites and assassinations of high-profile scientists being linked to Israeli operations.

Now, Babb said he suspected “Israel may capitalize on this situation” by going after Iranian nuclear facilities in the open.

Another prime target Babb identified was Iran’s oil sector, describing it as “like oxygen” for the Iranian government and its ability to generate revenue in backing its regionwide allies. He pointed out that Iran has “doubled production the last few years, and the revenue they’re generating from this sector is in the billions—despite the fact Iran’s oil is technically under U.S. sanctions.”

To put these plans into action, he argued that “Israel has a wide range of known and unknown military capabilities at their disposal,” noting that Israel’s $24 billion defense budget outweighs the total spending of Egypt, Iran, Jordan and Lebanon combined.

“From massive bunker buster bombs to advanced fighter aircraft such as the F-15, F-16, and F-35, to Apache helicopters and a variety of attack drones and UAVs, to submarines, warships, and world-class cyber capabilities, among other things,” Babb said, “Israel could hit Iran from multiple platforms simultaneously.”

Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and currently a partner at Texas Venture Partners firm that invests in Israeli defense tech startups, said that “Israel has to respond” to the Iranian attack, “and it will be a big one.”

And while she agreed that strategic sites such as oil, nuclear and military infrastructure were, indeed, targets being actively considered by Israel, she also told Newsweek that “it was important to look at this creatively” and that she anticipated “Israel to do the unexpected.”

Hearts and Minds

Before the IDF announced the beginning of a ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on Monday, Netanyahu issued a direct appeal to the Iranian people in which he accused the Iranian government of “wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East” rather than the well-being of civilians.

“When Iran is finally free—and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think—everything will be different,” Netanyahu said at the time.

As such, Ledeen argued that Israel may look to pursue actions in line with its intelligence-driven strategy “of sowing seeds of distrust” with the aim of “endorsing the freedom of the Iranian people from the regime that controls them and rules them right now.” Ultimately, she said, Netanyahu and his administration “want a partnership with the Iranian people.”

“That’s what they’ve seeded for many years now,” Ledeen told Newsweek. “So, I think that their response is going to be calibrated to account for that and to make space for that.”

She also cast skepticism on the prospect of Israel’s ensuing action to prompt a major regional war, given that many, including those in the U.S. government, she argued, have been fundamentally “wrong about this escalation ladder.”

“This escalation ladder that everyone has been so obsessed with, so far, it really hasn’t materialized,” Ledeen said. “I think it will be interesting to see what happens expect. I do expect a significant Israeli response, so we’ll see what that is and what happens from there.”

In Tehran, however, preparations are also being made for a potential Israeli counterstrike and how to then reply in kind amid concerns of a major war erupting.

No Perfect Defense

Mostafa Najafi, an Iranian researcher who specializes in Middle East conflicts and Iranian foreign policy, told Newsweek that “the Islamic Republic of Iran has also prepared all its defense capabilities to deal with the destabilizing adventure of this regime.”

“But it should be kept in mind that no country’s air defense is perfect,” Najafi said, “as Iran’s powerful missiles also passed through all of Israel’s multi-layered and advanced defense systems in the Operation True Promise II, and the myth of Israel’s impenetrable defense practically collapsed.”

“Iran is ready to defend its security, and in recent months, it has put its defense capabilities into action,” he added, “and Israel will not have an easy time getting past Iran’s defenses.”

While U.S. and Israeli officials have portrayed the Iranian strike as a failure with no significant impact on Israel’s military capabilities, a view also shared by Ledeen, the attack was celebrated among Iran and its allies as a major blow to their shared foe’s reputation.

Najafi asserted that the strike “was necessary for Iran’s national security and maintaining the balance of regional power,” noting Netanyahu’s ominous message to Iran a day prior. He argued that Israel’s actions in the region, including those directed toward Iran, have pushed it to abandon “the policy of patience and restraint.” He predicted “a tougher and more immediate response to any Israeli action against its interests.”

Yet anxiety continues to mount across the region and the international community as to what comes next.

“This is a historic and, at the same time, dangerous moment for the Middle East,” Najafi said. “It is a strategic imperative for the U.S. to restrain Israel with the pressure levers it has; Netanyahu wants to start a war in the Middle East at the expense of the United States and involve Washington in a devastating war in the region.”

“Iran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan,” he added. “Going to war with Iran will destroy the economy and security of the world.”