There is only one week left of the MLB regular season, which is always sad, as the MLB got us through the summer. Playoff races are tightening up across the league, while other teams are focusing on giving their young players some playing time.
Regardless, for this article we will be diving into our favorite MLB home run predictions of the day.
Brent Rooker Home Run (+340) BetMGM
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET
Rooker might not appear to have a pitching matchup that you would want to target, with Shota Imanaga on the mound for the Cubs, but Imanaga is more susceptible to the long ball than you would think.
In the last two months, he has given up 11 total home runs, allowing one every 16.73 at-bats, for a HR/9 of 2.05. The biggest issue for Imanaga is his 4-seam fastball. Of the 11 homers he has allowed in this stretch, 10 were on 4-seam fastballs.
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Rooker, meanwhile, hits the trifecta in terms of what we look for when placing a home run bet: he is red-hot at the plate in general, he is excellent against left-handed pitching (Imanaga is a lefty) and he also crushes the pitch-mix of Imanaga.
Rooker leads the MLB with five balls launched (100-plus mph off the bat, 20-40 degrees of launch angle) in the last seven days. There are a bunch of batters tied with four, but he is the only one with five. He has only hit two home runs in this stretch, but that is due to bad luck more than anything else.
On the year, Rooker has an ISO rate of .314 against LHP (anything .250 and above is considered “excellent” by FanGraphs). Against 4-seam fastballs from LHP, Rooker’s numbers are even better: a 21% barrel rate, 51% HardHit rate and 47% fly-ball rate.
Overall, he has an ISO rate of .395 against 4-seamers from lefties. While he has not hit a home run off a lefty in the past month, that is more due to bad luck than anything. The last time he saw a starting LHP, he had two balls launched that traveled 395 and 347 feet, respectively, but somehow, neither left the stadium.
That changes today, and he goes yard.
Brent Rooker Home Run (+340):0.75 Units
Bryce Harper Home Run (+400) FanDuel
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
Until this weekend, Harper — like Rooker — was having horrible home run luck, as he kept launching rockets that did not leave the stadium. It appears that is behind us, though, as Harper hit two home runs in the same game on Saturday.
In the last seven days, Harper is one of the eight batters who has four balls launched, which is tied for the second-most in MLB, and he has the two home runs to show for it.
Harper had been hitting a ton of doubles before Saturday’s breakthrough, with four non-home run, extra-base hits in the past week as well, so it made sense that the home run binge was going to start for Harper.
As for the pitching matchup, Aaron Civale is pitching for the Brewers. Looking at the entire season shows that Civale as a good pitcher to target for home runs, but he has admittedly been slightly better recently.
On the season, he has a HR/9 of 1.61, which is tied for the second-highest HR/9 in MLB of all pitchers who have thrown at least 140 innings. However, in the last two months, that number is slightly down to a HR/9 of 1.49 against left-handed hitters.
Even so, the 1.49 number is nothing to be scared of, and this is a batter-pitcher matchup that should favor Harper.
Civale’s most frequent pitch thrown is a cutter (38% of the time), which Harper has phenomenal numbers against. In the last month, he has made contact with a cutter from a righty five times, and all five have been considered HardHit (95-plus mph), with two of them being over 100 mph off the bat.
Bryce Harper Home Run (+400): 0.75 Units
Carlos Santana Home Run (+525) BetMGM
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
As always, we save our longest odds of the day for our last play, this time backing Santana to go yard.
While he not is the biggest name in the league, of course, Santana has quietly been hitting the ball very hard recently, and he is hitting lefties especially hard. He hit a home run off a lefty on Sunday, and in the past month, he has a .455 ISO rate and 53% HardHit rate against lefties.
The last four times Santana has made contact with a baseball from a lefty, it has left the bat at 98 mph or higher, including three at 100-plus mph or higher. That includes yesterday, when he hit a 375-foot rocket that was 103.9 mph off the bat.
Santana, a switch-hitter, has been significantly better this season when facing lefties. His ISO rate on the year against LHP is .314, up from .143 against RHP.
While the pitcher he is facing, Matthew Boyd, has not allowed a lot of home runs, he is still a pitcher who we believe can be had. According to FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric — which rates a pitcher’s “stuff” by looking at velocity, spin rate, movement, etc. — Boyd is below-average across the board with his entire pitch arsenal.
That includes a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time, against which Santana has a 20% barrel rate and 70% HardHit rate over the past month.
Santana sends one out of the stadium tonight.
Carlos Santana Home Run (+525): 0.50 Units
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