Moscow is using more combat-experienced units than it had previously in its response to Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region where it has been making gains, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) whose map shows the latest state of play there.
The Washington, D.C.-based think tank said visual evidence had showed that Russia was now operating company-sized units for counterattacks against Ukraine. Kyiv’s push into Kursk on August 6 took Moscow by surprise and saw them capture around 500 square miles of territory, according to Ukraine.
In its assessment on Wednesday, the ISW reported pro-Russian milbloggers had said elements of Russia’s 56th VDV Regiment and 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade were involved in Moscow’s counterattack.
This illustrative image from August 15, 2024, shows a Ukrainian armored infantry vehicle on the road from Sumy to the border with Russia. Moscow’s troops have tried to counter Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory.
Kostiantyn Liberov/Getty Images
The think tank also noted one milblogger’s claimed the involvement of Russian naval infantry and airborne “battalion tactical groups” (BTGs), which have not been used at scale on the battlefield since mid-2022.
Geolocated footage showed parts of Russia’s 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment conducting mechanized assault north of the village of Snagost, 6 miles from the border, it added.
Russian reports said Moscow’s troops had seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on September 10 and 11 although the size, scale, and prospects of the counterattacks were “unclear and the situation remains fluid,” the ISW said.
One of its latest maps marks this reported Russian advance, as well as gains southeast of Sheptukhovka and claims by milbloggers that 10 villages had been seized back by Moscow’s forces.
This map by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from September 11, 2024 shows the state of play in Russia’s Kursk region.
Institute for the Study of War
These Russian counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk may be an attempt to establish a more tactically favorable position before a wider counteroffensive operation against Ukrainian forces, the ISW said.
“Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory,” the think tank said.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv intends to hold onto territory it has captured in Kursk.
Nicolò Fasola, an expert on Russian military strategy and research fellow at the University of Bologna, has said that while the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk highlights another failure of the Russian military intelligence, it was unlikely that Kyiv would achieve any major breakthrough there.
“After suffering the initial push, Russia sent reserves, coordinated higher level countermeasures, and effectively contained Ukrainian advances,” he told Newsweek.
